Growth, Inflation, Labor Trends, and Fed Policy

Senior Market Strategist John Caruso examines the key economic forces shaping markets in early 2026. In this episode, he analyzes moderating GDP growth, stabilizing but vulnerable inflation, and emerging weakness in the labor market. Caruso also explores the impact of surging oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and what these dynamics could mean for the Federal Reserve’s next move. With stagflation risks rising and recession probabilities climbing, the discussion breaks down how growth, inflation, labor data, and energy markets are converging to influence policy decisions and market outlook